Trend Majority Still Favors Continuation
Price is resting on its first key Fibonacci level after a sharp decline, and how it behaves here will likely shape the next directional move.
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Market Overview: S&P 500 Futures trade premarket at 7,330.50, resting on the 23.6% Fibonacci level after a sharp pullback. The trend stack stays strongly bullish at 10 to 4, favoring continuation despite near-term cooling.
Bullish/Bearish Trend Analysis
Trend Condition: Bullish Trends: 10 Bearish Trends: 4
Trend Condition: Strong Uptrend
Explanation: The stack holds a clear bullish majority at 10 to 4, with leading EMAs elevated above the broader cluster. The alignment reflects a dominant uptrend, though the leading edge has begun curling lower on the recent decline.
Trend Structure: Absolute width is wide but compressing, with the leading EMAs rolling back toward the cluster after the rally’s extended expansion.
Implication: The wide spread confirms the uptrend’s strength, while the compressing leading edge signals the rally is cooling. This pullback functions as a potential base for renewed expansion if price confirms support at the Fibonacci level.
Probability Outlook:
Continuation: 60% — The strong 10-to-4 bullish stack with price holding the 23.6% Fibonacci level favors upside resumption. A confirmed bounce here would reinforce the dominant uptrend and challenge the supply block overhead.
Consolidation / Pullback: 40% — Rejection from the supply block above and the compressing leading edge leave room for further digestion. A break below the 23.6% level opens a path toward the demand block near the 38.2% Fibonacci.
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